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There is still room for growth in the future of LLDPE

wallpapers News 2020-08-13
After

PE / > LLDPE reached an annual high of 12205 yuan / ton in the first ten days of July, the market entered a weak adjustment due to the shrinking of spot premium downstream dem. The lowest point of 1409 contract in July was 11420 yuan / ton, the higher point was 785 yuan / ton, with an adjustment rate of 6.4%, which was the deepest adjustment since the bottoming up on March 10. As the main funds began to switch to the 1501 contract, the market for the future market trend also gradually divergent, both sides according to a word, there is no concession. However, the author believes that the continuous expansion of dem in the next few months the current low inventory situation of terminal manufacturers will make downstream enterprises in a weak position in the game with upstream suppliers, the price control of petrochemical manufacturers will make LLDPE prices continue to maintain a strong pattern in the third quarter. With the advent of the traditional consumption season, the price of LLDPE is expected to continue to rise. It is suggested that investors should keep the operation idea of buying on bargain. First of all, the macro-economy of China the United States is getting better. At the beginning of the year, the market was generally not optimistic about the domestic economy, but the domestic economy gradually reversed the pessimistic situation at the beginning of the year with the introduction of various regulatory policies. The implementation of various "micro stimulus" policies, including the targeted reduction of reserve requirements, made the economy begin to show effect in the second quarter. GDP growth in the second quarter was 7.5% year-on-year, slightly higher than the expected 7.4%, better than market expectations the former. The industrial data financial data also recovered in June, further confirming the current economic stability. A few days ago, the initial value of China's HSBC manufacturing PMI in July reached an 18 month high of 52, higher than the expectation of 51.0. This is the second consecutive month when the manufacturing index is higher than 50, indicating that the domestic economic recovery is becoming increasingly clear.

US durable goods orders performed better than market expectations in June, suggesting strong economic momentum at the end of the second quarter. Data show that US durable goods orders rose 0.7% in June, better than the expected 0.5% increase. The number of new jobless claims in the United States hit a 9-week low remained at a low level of around 300000, indicating that the employment market continues to improve. The US industrial output has achieved five consecutive months of growth. Although the growth rate slowed down in June, the growth of industrial output in the second quarter can still reach the highest level since 15 quarters, which shows that it is guaranteed that the US economic growth will return to normal in the second quarter. Various data of the U.S. economy show that the slow recovery of the economy is still continuing.

followed by crude oil prices. Since June, the crude oil market has come out of a high falling trend. The main cause is geopolitical tension. At present, the tension in Ukraine has not been eased. The European Union has announced that it will launch sanctions against Russia, which will seriously hit its economy, because of the development of Ukraine's crisis. EU sanctions on Russia's oil market will trigger tension. In addition, U.S. crude oil inventories fell more than market expectations last week, which supported oil prices to stop falling rise. With the arrival of summer travel peak in the United States, a large number of gasoline consumption dem will boost crude oil processing capacity, the increase of operating rate of American refineries will undoubtedly support the high crude oil price from the root. The high stabilization of crude oil price has played a supporting role in the price of polyethylene, a downstream product.

finally, the supply dem of polyethylene increased. In terms of supply, the PE output in June 2014 was 855000 tons, an increase of 15% over the same period of last year (743000 tons), the total output from January to June this year was 4.977 million tons, an increase of 10.6% over the same period of last year (4.502 million tons). The output growth was mainly caused by the commissioning of several units, including the 300000 ton ethylene plant in Wuhan put into operation in August 2013, the 800000 ton full density plant in Fujian exped to 900000 tons in January 2014, the 300000 ton linear ethylene plant in Sichuan was put into operation in March 2014. These capacity increases brought about a year-on-year increase in output in the first half of this year. As for the import of

, as of June 2014, the annual import volume of PE reached 4.7576 million tons, with an increase of 19.33% compared with 2013. The monthly import volume in six months of the year maintained a positive growth year on year over 2013. In the second quarter, due to the continuous inversion of imports, taking LLDPE as an example, the current import price of LLDPE in US dollars is about 1600 US dollars / ton, which is about 5% more expensive than the domestic spot price after being converted into RMB. The upside down of import price limits the import dem of US dollar sources to a certain extent, which makes the import increment of the second quarter decline compared with the first quarter.

in 2014, although the import volume of PE increased dramatically, the port inventory was in the middle level within three years. According to Zhuo Chuang information, the average port inventory in 2014 was 152500 tons, about 23% lower than that in 2012, only 7% higher than that in 2013. It can be seen that the huge amount of PE imports did not form cumulative inventory, most of the import increment entered the circulation link. In addition to the port inventory brought by imports, the inventory of domestic petrochemical manufacturers the social inventory of traders in the circulation of goods sources are also the constituent factors that can not be ignored in the overall inventory. According to the statistics of Longzhong data, the social inventory of polyethylene has continued to increase since July. At present, the total inventory is close to 400000 tons, which is significantly increased compared with that below 350000 tons at the beginning of July. In the inventory of manufacturers, Sinopec's aggregate inventory in North China, East China South China has also soared rapidly from below 70000 tons to about 100000 tons recently. The recent changes of

inventory reflect that the current supply dem tend to be loose, which also explains the motivation of petrochemical manufacturers to reduce prices in the early stage. However, the new changes learned from this year's market are that petrochemical manufacturers have established remote warehouses their tolerance for high inventory has been improved, which makes the situation of high inventory in the long run since this year. In sharp contrast, the downstream manufacturers have always maintained low inventory operation mode, which makes their situation worse in the game with upstream. Since the second quarter, the price of LLDPE has risen against the season, making downstream manufacturers helpless.

occupy the most important area of LLDPE consumption in the future. The current operating rate of agricultural film manufacturers remains low consolidation, the packaging film manufacturers are not high or low due to the impact of recent orders. However, after entering August, the output of agricultural film plastic film will gradually increase, which is mainly related to the agricultural production season in China; after entering October, the dem for greenhouse film solar film in winter in northern China will increase gradually, the output of agricultural film plastic film will also increase correspondingly. In the future, the downstream market will gradually increase the consumption of LLDPEIn view of the current low inventory situation in the terminal market, the price of LLDPE may rise further. "


TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary. (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.
TRUNNANO (aka. Luoyang Tongrun Nano Technology Co. Ltd.) is a trusted global chemical material supplier & manufacturer with over 12 years' experience in providing super high-quality chemicals and Nanomaterials. The nitride powder produced by our company has high purity, fine particle size and impurity content. Please contact us if necessary.
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